Suspense

Presidential elections will be held 30 May 2010. If no candidate gets 50% of the votes, there will be a second round on 20 June.

With a little more than 3 months to go we still have very little idea of who is going to run, with a chance of being elected. There will be many candidates. The Liberal Party has decided upon their candidate, Rafael Pardo. So has the left block, the POLO Democratico Alternativo, with Gustavo Petro. And there is Germán Vargas Lleras, and ... more. And the independent Sergio Fajardo, ex-mayor of Medellin (as was Uribe when he was elected in 2002, as independent). Also the three latest ex-mayors from Bogotá have decided to run together for Partido Verde [Green Party], but have not yet announced who is to be the first name: Garzón, Peñalosa or Mockus.

The core "uribist" party 'La U' stands behind Juan M. Santos, ex-minister of defence in the Uribe government. And the Conservative Party has not decided among its several candidates, among which ex-ministers Andrés Felipe Arias and Noemí Sanín are likely to have a close run in the internal party preliminaries.

No lack of candidates, then, when they register with the Electoral Commission before 12 March. Still, this is normal and as it should be.

But now to the confusing part, Uribe's possible reelection. You might remember that he was reelected once already, in 2006. This required a constitutional change which was achieved through fraud, by corrupting two members of Congress (see a recent blogpost). A second reelection also requires a referendum to accept the constitutional change. This has not yet been announced, as the constitutional court must first scrutinise and accept as correct the procedures that have preceded the referendum. The court's first readings list at least 20 formal errors, that now are being evaluated. Are they serious enough to stop the referendum?

So, there are a number of scenarios, the court may say:

1. Yes, let there be referendum, and the result is:
1. Yes to accept reelection; or
2. No to reelection; or
3. Not enough votes for referendum to be valid, thus no reelection.
2. No, there were too serious errors in the procedures, therefore no referendum.
3. The court takes it's time before deciding, so that a referendum cannot be held in time for Uribe to register his candidature legally.

Confused? Yes, of course, most people are.

There is more: The candidate Santos for La U says that he will in fact only stand for election if asked by Uribe. And conservative Arias, should he be the chosen party candidate, says that he will not run against Uribe. And Uribe says ... nothing, yet.

So, now the reelectionists hope for 1. and 1.1. The antis hope for 2. but if that fails then 1.3. by abstention.

And the Electoral Council has announced that time is already running out, that we are already at 3.

And I believe that we shall have to wait another couple of weeks. The suspense is favourable to Uribe whether he will run or not - and instead support one of the other candidates. Uribe might hope for a positive court decision but I don't believe it will come. So, when it has definitely become too late for a referendum, Uribe might say that, and withdraw as the candidate he never was, and publicly support "Uribito" Arias if he won the internal conservative fight - or else Santos. So my best guess if I only have one: No referendum, Uribe stands behind Santos.

But much may change in the coming weeks. And always remember: Rule of law is not a common Colombian practice.

---

PS. One factor has just changed [11 Feb 2010]: The constitutional court from today has a new chairman, Mauricio González. Before coming to the court, he was juridical secretary to ... president Uribe.