Anomalies and irregularities

The white areas of this map of Colombia are sparsely populated, on the Pacific west coast, and in the Amazon. For the rest of the country, green areas dominate.

Click on the map for a much larger version.

The map attempts to show the risks of irregularities in the upcoming elections.

The colour code, however, is a bit of an understatement: green=medium risk, orange=high risk, red=extreme risk.

In fact, then, about half of the municipalities in Colombia show medium-to-extreme risk of electoral irregularities. This is the sad prediction from MOE, the Misión de Observación Electoral, just released.

What are then these "irregularities"? Some examples:

• Atypical voting participation (low or high),
• Manipulation of empty ballots (abstentions, unmarked),
• Manipulation of votes for a specific candidate or list,
• Irregularities in counting and registration of votes.

The participation can be manipulated by threats, local terror, to prevent people from voting - or to insist that they vote for a certain candidate. And perhaps more common this year, by buying votes. At the counting table (with 4-6 local officials counting) there are often good opportunities to change empty ballots, or to add prepared ballots for a chosen candidate. The latter method is usually accompanied by ticking off some more voters on the list, to avoid inconsistencies. As lists are not up-to-date this ticking off means that many who have been dead for years seemingly keep voting.

It is difficult to see any radical change to come soon, even if a vast majority of Colombians would wish clean and honest voting and counting. The majority of the Congress does not show interest in a reform. Ballots and voting registration forms are now so exposed to so many corruptible people, and to unsafe transport where strange things may happen. When manipulation is obvious beforehand it happens that the National Electoral Council will replace some local officials, but the problem is that there are still so many points of entry for those with bad intentions.

Therefore it will not help to reduce these kinds of irregularities that the Minister of Defence just announced that 100 000 military and police will guarantee the security on election day 14 March.