No more Uribe!

The Constitutional Court has decided not to accept the planned referendum that sought to legalise a second reelection of president Uribe. This, for once, is positive news from those upper circles: The juridical system has shown its independence. It has done so in spite of Uribe's attempts to place his own people in central positions in the juridical system. The most recent of these was precisely the president of the Constitutional Court, who came from a post as juridical secretary — to the president! He was one of the two in the 7-2 vote today.

This is a relief, as waiting for the court decision has paralysed the political discussion, so much more important for the election.

There are no signs of unrest, or of attempts to ignore the court decision. I had feared that this decision possibly could provoke a state of emergency or some other radical abuse of presidential power. For many months now, Uribe has been talking about the "state of opinion" as an expression of popular will, and as such more important than the "constitutional state" (Rechtsstaat). Some have interpreted this as an ideological preparation of a coup d'état, an auto-coup. In his first comment on the court decision, however, Uribe says that though popular will is most important, it must also respect the constitution ...

Let's hope that Uribe too, for once, will respect the constitution.

Visual offence

To me personally, the worst visual offence being committed in the election campaign is the sheer ugliness of the posters, murals and billboards. I have shown you some, before. Most pictures are just boring, heavily manipulated photos of candidates. You would't recognise them if you met them, because on the posters they are all 10 years younger, completely without wrinkles, as vivid as plastic dolls.

But it is not so easy for art directors to be creative in this jungle of rules, where you may not offend, certain combinations of colours are prohibited, and so on. The hand at the top of this note has been banned by the electoral council, as it uses the colours of the Colombian flag.

Very rarely some politician has the courage to be less conventional, as is the case with Gustavo Petro. Not a wild thing, but the Warhol aesthetics is definitely a break:

Even so, it is only when we leave the party propaganda that we can expect to see something more original. As this bloody mural fragment from Bogotá, commenting on the main party of the government coalition:

During the MTV awards late 2009 appeared another intelligent comment on Uribe's foreign policy. It caused aggressive official comments by the government, protests, boycott of the Puerto Rican band scheduled to play in Colombia, etc. The careful observer will see that the t-shirt does not say that Uribe is paramilitary ... but just that he is 'para' (for) military bases. Which he is.

I would like to have one of those — but I would not dare to wear it in Colombia.

Collective amnesia? Indifference?

A recent survey shows that 80% of Colombians who say they voted in the 2006 elections do not remember who they voted for!

The investigation, made by Corpovisionarios, also shows that voting abstention is relatively higher in big urban areas, close to 70% – while the total abstention rate usually is about 50%.

Speaking about abstention, if there should be a referendum on reelection, just 45% say that they would vote. And of those, 83% are in favour of reelection. In this case abstention is not just a result of ignorance or indifference, it is also the most effective way to prevent reelection.

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Note: Most surveys and opinion polls use telephone interviews on fixed lines, usually only in the largest cities: Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla. Thus rural and poor people are excluded, and results are not ... very reliable.

Anomalies and irregularities

The white areas of this map of Colombia are sparsely populated, on the Pacific west coast, and in the Amazon. For the rest of the country, green areas dominate.

Click on the map for a much larger version.

The map attempts to show the risks of irregularities in the upcoming elections.

The colour code, however, is a bit of an understatement: green=medium risk, orange=high risk, red=extreme risk.

In fact, then, about half of the municipalities in Colombia show medium-to-extreme risk of electoral irregularities. This is the sad prediction from MOE, the Misión de Observación Electoral, just released.

What are then these "irregularities"? Some examples:

• Atypical voting participation (low or high),
• Manipulation of empty ballots (abstentions, unmarked),
• Manipulation of votes for a specific candidate or list,
• Irregularities in counting and registration of votes.

The participation can be manipulated by threats, local terror, to prevent people from voting - or to insist that they vote for a certain candidate. And perhaps more common this year, by buying votes. At the counting table (with 4-6 local officials counting) there are often good opportunities to change empty ballots, or to add prepared ballots for a chosen candidate. The latter method is usually accompanied by ticking off some more voters on the list, to avoid inconsistencies. As lists are not up-to-date this ticking off means that many who have been dead for years seemingly keep voting.

It is difficult to see any radical change to come soon, even if a vast majority of Colombians would wish clean and honest voting and counting. The majority of the Congress does not show interest in a reform. Ballots and voting registration forms are now so exposed to so many corruptible people, and to unsafe transport where strange things may happen. When manipulation is obvious beforehand it happens that the National Electoral Council will replace some local officials, but the problem is that there are still so many points of entry for those with bad intentions.

Therefore it will not help to reduce these kinds of irregularities that the Minister of Defence just announced that 100 000 military and police will guarantee the security on election day 14 March.

Equal access, ha!

The law prescribes that all presidential candidates shall have equal access to broadcast time on national channels. Thus there ought not to me more time on air for candidate Arias than for candidate Petro.

Quite possibly this is also the case, at least for "positive" appearances. The television channels are careful not to break the "Ley de Garantías", that guarantees the equal access. This law was important in the first Uribe re-election campaign in 2006. As a candidate Uribe had to abstain from his usual unlimited tv-time. This was a new situation in Colombia, because re-election was new in Colombia.

The Attorney General recently recommended president Uribe to comply with the law also in 2010. Uribe first said that of course ... and soon changed to the position that the law does not really apply to him. He is not (yet) candidate, and thus he feels free to appear as usual on our screens. For example during weekly hours' long transmissions from carefully staged "consejos comunales", supposedly arranged for the president to listen to vox populi. In practice it turns out to me more like Chavez' "Aló, Presidente" — just even more boring.

So, we see very little of Petro, and huge amounts of Uribe. And, in fact, also quite a lot of Arias, due to his apparent tactical choice "Bad News Is Better Than No News". Some day soon I will get back to Arias ...

Photo montage from Semana.com

Franchising and other tricks

The buying and selling of votes is usually not an individual trade between one voter and one candidate. It is organised, at local, regional and/or at national level. Thus there is both room for overall strategical planning and for local creativity.

One new form is what might be seen as a kind of social franchising of electoral fraud. Following this model the party organisation makes a deal with a popular local leader, in a village, a neighbourhood or in fact any geographical area. The leader agrees to provide a certain number of votes for the candidate in question, perhaps one hundred or five hundred - for a certain price. The party pays a first instalment, an advance sum, with the rest to be paid after counting votes. The advance makes it possible for the local leader to sub-franchise the tasks.

In some social environments it might seem a bit shameful to sell your vote for money. When this is the case, it is a challenge for the local trickster to find an alternative, very often in kind. In poor neighbourhoods this might be contruction materials, as sacks of cement or roofing tiles. During the elections in 2006 I noticed this being done openly. Just a few blocks from the voting place in my barrio, people were queing up to collect their goods. This was a slow process, requiring much space, as it is quite difficult to move corrugated Eternit tiles on bicycle. The local police came to help to avoid traffic congestion.

So, if on election day, you observe outlets that are not usually there, it might be election fraud you are witnessing.

Playing around

Carlos Moreno de Caro is a wellknown politician in Colombia. He is a founder of political parties! He founded the "Let the Moreno Play Movement" (Movimiento Dejen Jugar al Moreno), and was elected senator in 2002. A strong supporter of Uribe, in 2006 - when Moreno was not elected - he was appointed ambassador to South Africa. He produced several scandals in his new role, and is back in Colombia now.

Ind December 2009 Moreno founded the Alianza Democrática Nacional, ADN, with politicians from the defunct party Colombia Viva. However, ADN was not admitted to register its candidates for election, as it was discovered that imprisoned "parapoliticians" had participated by videolink in the constituitive assembly. Thus Moreno (and several other candidates) continued to the Partido de Integración Nacional, PIN (see an earlier blogpost). Moreno was immediately welcomed - and insisted on being first name on the party list. No success, this time.

So now Carlos Moreno de Caro is back in the Conservative Party, and is registered as a candidate for Senate for this party with the rather uncommon conservative slogan: "The change continues!"

It is easy to dismiss Moreno as a political clown, a populist, an object of ridicule, a favourite for gossip journalists, an unreliable political ally. He is all of this. However, he can also be seen as a prototype of the egocentric Colombian politician, whose main motivation is not politics, but being elected.

There are many of these around, which explains also the large number of parties, very often with no social base at all. To a large extent the lack of social base and real party organisation is also the situation in more "traditional" parties. The political programmes (when they exist!) of most parties are extremely vague. Liberals may be conservative and almost socialist at the same time. Paramilitary sympathisers and peace activists in the same party. "Clean" Uribist candidates for the lower house may team up with Senate candidates with explicit parapolitical sympaties. Today I even saw a poster for a chamber candidate from one party combining with a wannabe senator from another!

My eurocentric gaze makes it rather difficult to navigate in this political chaos (sic!).

450,000,000.00 COP

450 million Colombian pesos, that is 230,000 US dollars. This is the upper limit of how much a candidate for the Senate may legally spend on the election campaign. For the lower house it depends on the number of registered voters in the candidate's district. The limit will typically be about 150,000 USD.

230,000 USD appears as a lot of money in a country where half of the population is really poor.

Candidates get (some) money back from the state, after the elections. In order to recover it all (the legal amount that is), about 100,000 personal votes are needed. Extremely few receive that many votes, but it happens. In 2006 liberal Juan Manuel Lopez got 146,000 votes. Lopez is now in prison for collaborating with paramilitary groups - but is expected to be replaced (in the Senate) by his wife Arleth Casado "Siempre con Todos". The high scorers normally stay between 30,000 and 60,000 personal votes.

Some candidates have very intensive campaigns, with lots of appearances, cars with loudspeakers, merchandise, distribution of gifts, parties, campaign staff. And much advertising on cars, murals, huge billboards, in radio and television, mobile phone jingles, websites, Facebook, Twitter — for months. Some candidates for the Senate do campaigning in departments, as they are elible in the whole country. This means a lot of travel, in some parts necessarily by air.

Let's have a look at one candidate, Maritza Martínez, representing "La U" in the government coalition. She has bee campaigning for a year, as documented on her website. Here we can also see her crowds, that she is distributing gifts, and this Saturday [13 February] she invites to an open meeting and concert with wellknown artists in the centre of Bogotá.

In a recent interview Martínez explains that her 20 billboards are not that expensive, some 20,000 USD in all. That is certainly a bargain, but still this fragment eats about 10% of her legal budget. She goes on to tell that she does not distribute any gifts, while the many proudly exposed photos on her website tells quite another story.

Martínez is campaigning in four departments, a vast area. At times she uses air transport, also helicopters, as displayed on the web. This she nicely explains by saying that the pilots are friends of her father, so they give her a favourable price! Well, well - one might wonder what a serious accountant would comment on that. But the risk of getting into trouble is probably neglible. Martínez' ex-congressmember husband Luis Carlos Torres is her advisor and accompanies her — he himself has had to resign from Congress as he is being investigated for parapolitics.

These nice people are from the core uribista party, La U.

Suspense

Presidential elections will be held 30 May 2010. If no candidate gets 50% of the votes, there will be a second round on 20 June.

With a little more than 3 months to go we still have very little idea of who is going to run, with a chance of being elected. There will be many candidates. The Liberal Party has decided upon their candidate, Rafael Pardo. So has the left block, the POLO Democratico Alternativo, with Gustavo Petro. And there is Germán Vargas Lleras, and ... more. And the independent Sergio Fajardo, ex-mayor of Medellin (as was Uribe when he was elected in 2002, as independent). Also the three latest ex-mayors from Bogotá have decided to run together for Partido Verde [Green Party], but have not yet announced who is to be the first name: Garzón, Peñalosa or Mockus.

The core "uribist" party 'La U' stands behind Juan M. Santos, ex-minister of defence in the Uribe government. And the Conservative Party has not decided among its several candidates, among which ex-ministers Andrés Felipe Arias and Noemí Sanín are likely to have a close run in the internal party preliminaries.

No lack of candidates, then, when they register with the Electoral Commission before 12 March. Still, this is normal and as it should be.

But now to the confusing part, Uribe's possible reelection. You might remember that he was reelected once already, in 2006. This required a constitutional change which was achieved through fraud, by corrupting two members of Congress (see a recent blogpost). A second reelection also requires a referendum to accept the constitutional change. This has not yet been announced, as the constitutional court must first scrutinise and accept as correct the procedures that have preceded the referendum. The court's first readings list at least 20 formal errors, that now are being evaluated. Are they serious enough to stop the referendum?

So, there are a number of scenarios, the court may say:

1. Yes, let there be referendum, and the result is:
1. Yes to accept reelection; or
2. No to reelection; or
3. Not enough votes for referendum to be valid, thus no reelection.
2. No, there were too serious errors in the procedures, therefore no referendum.
3. The court takes it's time before deciding, so that a referendum cannot be held in time for Uribe to register his candidature legally.

Confused? Yes, of course, most people are.

There is more: The candidate Santos for La U says that he will in fact only stand for election if asked by Uribe. And conservative Arias, should he be the chosen party candidate, says that he will not run against Uribe. And Uribe says ... nothing, yet.

So, now the reelectionists hope for 1. and 1.1. The antis hope for 2. but if that fails then 1.3. by abstention.

And the Electoral Council has announced that time is already running out, that we are already at 3.

And I believe that we shall have to wait another couple of weeks. The suspense is favourable to Uribe whether he will run or not - and instead support one of the other candidates. Uribe might hope for a positive court decision but I don't believe it will come. So, when it has definitely become too late for a referendum, Uribe might say that, and withdraw as the candidate he never was, and publicly support "Uribito" Arias if he won the internal conservative fight - or else Santos. So my best guess if I only have one: No referendum, Uribe stands behind Santos.

But much may change in the coming weeks. And always remember: Rule of law is not a common Colombian practice.

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PS. One factor has just changed [11 Feb 2010]: The constitutional court from today has a new chairman, Mauricio González. Before coming to the court, he was juridical secretary to ... president Uribe.

Hereditary corruption?

I have not previously known a society where family is so important. Of course family means a lot also in Europe, and more so in south Europe. In some countries families are also important in politics, as have been the Kennedy and Bush families in the US, the Karamanlis in Greece, Frey in Chile, Helveg in Denmark, etc. We might like them or not as politicians, but in general these are rather 'respectable' families.

In Colombia things are sometimes incredibly different, i.e. I find things difficult to understand. One thing that appears strange is that so many elected politicians, among them many members of congress, have been forced to resign. Many of them were condemned to long prison sentences for conspiracy, corruption, murder — and much more. Sentences have typically been 3 to 7 years, in one case 40 years! More than 100 governors, senators, mayors are still under investigation, and plenty of them will be condemned. Fine.

My incredulity grows when I notice that these crooks do not really disappear from politics. They do not even disappear from parliament, but are sought replaced by their sons, cousins, wives, nephews - so that family power can remain untouched both in central politics and in the local society. Some other day soon I shall write a piece on these 'family matters'. For now just a very incomplete list of candidates intending to replace their criminal relatives.

A couple of days ago I wrote about ADN, the party where the constituitive assembly included imprisoned politicians. The party had to close, but its candidates immediately found new home especially in PIN, Partido de Integración Nacional. This is not a new party (it just recently changed it's name), but established and supporting president Uribe. Main leaders are ex-senator Luis Alberto Gil (in prison) and ex-governor Hugo Aguilar (under investigacion for paramilitary collaboration).

Politicians from the traditional parties (liberals, conservatives), journalists and intellectuals sometimes mockingly characterise PIN as the "recycling" or "garbage" party. But I fear that PIN in the elections 14 March 2010 will achieve a large representation in parliament. Here are some of the suspect PIN candidates:

• Doris Vega, wife of ex-senator Luis Alberto Gil, in prison;
• Teresita García, sister of ex-senator Álvaro 'El Gordo' García, in prison; faces up to 60 years;
• Hernando de la Espriella, brother of ex-senator Miguel de la Espriella, sentenced to 3+ years for parapolitics;
• Mauricio Aguilar, son of ex-governor Hugo Aguilar (under investigation);
• Viviana Patricia Blel, niece of ex-senator Vicente Blel, condemned to 7 years in prison;
• Raúl Alberto Vives, brother of ex-representative Luis Eduardo Vives, 7 years;
• Héctor Julio Alfonso, son of mafia queen Enilce López, 'La Gata', brother of ex-mayor Jorge Luis Alfonso López;
• Jairo Hinestroza Sinisterra, cousin of ex-senator Juan Carlos Martínez, in prison for parapolitics.

Today's theme was family. Those PIN candidates who are just common, corrupt politicians are not mentioned (it is boring with long lists).

But beware, PIN is not the only party that accepts candidates with suspect relations. Take the Liberal Party, whose imprisoned ex-senator Juan Manuel López Cabrales is now advisor to his wife and candidate Arleth Casado de Lopez. So, when she is elected - he will again have a voice in the senate. We are in macholand.

In the Conservative Party likewise: ex-senator William Montes (condemned) supports his wife Martha Curi to replace him. She in turn is daughter of proven corrupt ex-mayor of Cartagena. There seems to be no end ...

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BTW: Colombia's Liberal Party is member of the Socialist International, with its nice principles and ethical charter. The party even holds a vice-presidency in the SI.

Buying and selling votes

The frontpage of today's El Universal on the web includes a poll:

"Do you know anyone who has sold his vote?"

At 9 a.m. the result is 100% yes, 0% no.
At 11 a.m. still 100% yes.
At 2 p.m. 97% yes.
And at the end of the day: 93% yes.

Admittedly this poll does not meet any scientific criteria for methodological rigour. Still, I believe that a real poll would give quite similar results.

I imagine that putting the question in Sweden would cause smiles and disbelief, "what do you mean, really?" Not so in Colombia. In fact people speak quite openly about it, and also about the current price. We can learn that one of the country's well-known crooks, Enilce "La Gata" Lopez is now offering 10-25 USD (20-50,000 pesos) for a vote on her son who wants to become senator. That is the current, flexible rate, which may of change closer to election date 14 March. At the moment you can also get paid in kind: a large bottle of rhum, clothes, phone cards.

You may ask how they control that the vote is cast, and as agreed? Well, one method is pure fear. Or "bad environment" as the parable might be, armed hitmen close to the polling stations. It is also common practice to take note of the civil register number of the seller, so that it may be checked against the list of voters. This of course requires that the crooks are represented at the voting table ...

There are many other ways to commit fraud. The government's anti-corruption office has produced a "Manual of electoral tricks" [Manual de tramparencia electoral] in an attempt to use humor in combatting fraud.

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P.S. A day later [9 February 2010] El Espectador brings a very well documented article on the same theme. The current price for a vote in Barranquilla is 40,000 pesos and an ekstra 3,000 for the bus.

More slogans!

The Alianza Democrática Nacional, ADN, is already dead. This new party was recently declared illegitimate as it was discovered that some of the founders had participated in the constituitive assembly through videolink from prison. These founding fathers and former members of Congress were serving long prison sentences for having collaborated with paramilitary groups. ADN planned to launch candidates with one merit only: they are relatives of politicians imprisoned for collaborating with paramilitaries. Thus the incredibly shameless pun: "ADN, I carry it in my blood." - ADN is Spanish for DNA.

Rafael Madrid has also a pun, trying to turn his own obesity into an argument: "Heavy reasons to work for Córdoba" - Córdoba being the department where Madrid is seeking to be elected.



Those were conscious attempts at bringing some humour into the not-so-funny campaign. Sometimes, however, the unintended becomes more entertaining:



Here the argument for voting for Musa and Tirado is that this is "Your ... best option!"

Perhaps it helps that this wall also had room for another message in the party colours: "Jesus Christ comes soon! Are you prepared for his coming?"

All these slogans have something in common, although they come from very different political groups: They communicate absolutely no political content!

Creative writing, today: CV

It happens so often and it does not cease to surprise me: Some politicians lie about academic and other qualifications. When discovered it is of course most embarrasing, and in some countries would lead to resigning from the post held. This might not be a very big thing if it is a member of a local council. But the president! Still, this is what he did, president Uribe, lying about his degrees and work at Oxford University.

I stumbled upon this when I was trying to establish the real qualifications of the (now ex-) minister of agriculture, Andrés Felipe Arias. His CV seemed quite incredible to me, with a first degree (bachelor) in 1999, next year an M.A, and in 2002 a PhD from UCLA. And also, partly during the same period, a number of job positions at Banco de la República, at UCLA, at Universidad de los Andes, at the IMF, a high administrative post in a Colombian ministry — and early 2004 appointed vice-minister of agriculture. In 2005 he was minister in charge. A town boy in five years from bachelor through PhD to minister of agriculture! Impressive, if it were true.

Perhaps it is. I have not been able to get hold of his PhD thesis, although this is usually very easy in the USA. But there exists an abstract of Arias' work, with the rather senior sounding title: "Essays in Macroeconomics and Banking Productivity."

Arias is possibly an important person as he is now presidential candidate in the preliminaries for the Conservative Party. Arias has been a kind of crown prince for Uribe, so much that he is mockingly called "Uribito". We might see more of him and his qualifications - whatever they are.

The CV lists from Uribe and Arias are not very creative though. Just a little manipulative, avoiding dates (was Arias for one week or half a year at the IMF?) and telling about visits as if they were appointments (Uribe at Oxford).

Others are more in the creative mood, like "Ray". Raymundo Méndez Bechara in full. His website presentation is more careful than Uribe's original. Bechara writes that he "studied", not that he graduated. But he too is manipulating, mentioning his sejour at the Colombian consulate in New York, "selected the best Colombian consulate abroad", "before the government of Barrack Obama" - as if Bechara had anything at all to do with Obama or the consulate's performance. Of course he had not. And no mentioning that his aunt had an influential post at the very same consulate (where other influential persons have placed their kids). It goes on and on. Bechara has also been Vice-rector of the Universidad del Sinú - but he does not mention that his mother then was rector, and owner, of this private university. On the university's page of "outstanding graduates" he has even become Dr. Raymundo Méndez Bechara.

This huge billboard by the premises of "Universidad del Sinú Elías Bechara Zainúm" might soon serve as starting point for some further observations on the importance of family ties in Colombian politics. And probably for another take on the catch phrase theme with an interpretation of "The force of a new leader"!

Slogans and catch phrases

Many of us remember catch phrases from political speeches and campaigns. Perhaps we feel something nice when seeing or hearing "Yes, we can!", Obama's campaign slogan. Admittedly, it is not very informative - but it introduces an optimistic attitude, and also the important we. To find out what we can do, it is necessary to listen or read more. Other phrases are more helpful and concrete, as "It's the economy, stupid!" used by Bill Clinton in his 1992 campaign.

Colombian politicians of course also try to invent brilliant slogans. President Uribe's favourite phrase is "Mano dura y corazón grande" [Hard hand and big heart] - often accompanied by the natural gestures, the aggressively raised fist changed into an open hand on his chest. Not a bad show. Strongman Uribe also uses "Trabajar, trabajar y trabajar" [To work, to work and to work]. Nobody doubts that he does.

One of Uribe's supporters in 2002 was former president Turbay (1916-2005, president 1978-82), who also strongly supported the reelection in 2006. He is wellknown for some interesting phrases, as "Yo no estoy a favor ni en contra, sino todo lo contrario" [I'm not in favor nor against, but quite the opposite]. Talking about corruption as I did as I did the other day, Turbay declared: "Tenemos que reducir la corrupción a sus justas proporciones" [We must reduce the corruption to its fair proportions]. I would have liked to know these, the fair proportions.

Now, let's have a look at the locals. Arleth Casado is candidate for the senate. Her slogan, she only has one, is "Siempre con todos" [Always with everyone]:

Arleth's posters, murals and banners are all over the place, in the whole region. No matter if her slogan is so impossible that I cannot understand anyone voting for her. Always with everyone! With the rich, with the poor, with the paramilitaries, with their victims! With me, with you! Always! I cannot understand it, but "everyone" belives that Arleth will be elected.

I will get back to her, when I soon will post a note on family ties and political clans.

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PS. I have noticed that Uribe sometimes uses the expression "mano firme" [firm hand], sometimes "mano duro" [hard hand]. I have not done any frequency analysis but it seems to me that with a civilian audience it is enough to be firm, while in front of soldiers Uribe tends to be hard.

Bribery, Corruption Also

This friendly handshake is how corruption may appear, both in Sweden and in Colombia. The illustration is on the cover of a most interesting official report: The structure of corruption in Sweden [in Swedish]. The report describes common "Swedish" forms of corruption. In principle they do not differ much from Colombian forms. The roles are the same - and there are at least two characters, a suborner and a corrupt person. There may be others as well: middlemen, hatchet men, and ... lawyers.

The differences are in the use of threats, extorsion or violence, the level of discretion, and the sheer size of it.

In Sweden bribery is usually quite subtile, demands are often not specified and bribes come afterwards. If discovered one can pretend it was a grateful gift, not a precondition for, e.g. a contract. It might still be against the codes, but it is difficult to prove any criminal act.

In Colombia things are otherwise. The economy of bribery is substantial. In an interview in El Tiempo (11 Jan 2010) Oscar Ortíz, the government's zar anticorrupción, estimates that bribes in 2009 amounted to 4 billion pesos, equivalent to all direct foreign investment in Colombia. This is enormous. In order to get a public contract to build a bridge, a school, maintain roads, provide school lunches or health services ... contractors have to pay an average of 12.9% in bribes.

This is the situation at all levels, when building highways in Bogotá - and when repairing the school lavatory in a remote village. And the scale of it, 12.9% of all public investments. Enough to pay for the education of 325.000 children!

However, the more widely known and perceptible corruption in Colombia is about unlawful influences, sometimes achieved through violence, harassment and threats, but very often they are part of mutual agreements, trading of favours, clientilism and nepotism. This explains why the chief paramilitary leader Salvatore Mancuso could triumphantly declare after the 2006 elections that his organisation now controlled 35% of the congress. He has proven to be right, which I shall probably want to show in future columns.

We are coming closer to today's target: strange things happened before the presidential elections in 2006. As now it was not in accordance with the constitution to reelect the president - then as now Alvaro Uribe. Attempts were made to change the rules, but failure seemed unevitable. The final battle would be in the 1st commission of the Congress, but there was a deadlock. Voting was postponed, talks went on and on - and at last the vote: surprise, surprise, in favour of allowing reelection! One of the representatives had changed her mind and was now in favour, Yidis Medina. Another was absent, Teodolindo Avendaño. This happened in 2004, and preparations for the 2006 (re-)election could continue.

Uribe was elected. His political allies were in control of the Congress. Many of these allies depended on paramilitary support for their success in the parliamentary elections.

Then, in 2008 the independent television channel Noticias Uno broadcast an interview with Yidis Medina, recorded in 2004 [watch in Youtube].

In the interview Medina tells how she traded her vote for favours, contracts, jobs to her political allies and personal friends. She had agreed to record the interview as an insurance, it would only be broadcast in case something happened to her. In 2008, 4 years later, she decided to release the interview as a revenge, as president Uribe and his collaborators had not fulfilled their promises to her. She told in considerable detail what persons had been involved, among them were various ministers including the minister of justice Sabas Pretelt, later ambassador in Italy and recently appointed director og the UN World Food Programme - as well as president Uribe himself.

Yidis Medina was of course arrested, as she had confessed. Also Avendaño and his collaborator Iván Díaz Mateus were arrested. The Supreme Court gave them prison sentences of 4, 8 and 6 years, respectively.

The president and his people denied everything. They certainly had not committed any bribery, and Uribe said about Medina that she acted as a criminal, and that "her vote helped but now she appears as a failed woman, unsatisfied because her extortion attempt did not work."

So, here we have a strange case with three corrupt members of congress condemned for receiving bribes, but noone has ever been found guilty of the bribery. And Yidis Medina's important vote was not invalidated, so the constitution still permits reelection, once. And Uribe still rules.

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PS. The headline "Bribery, Corruption Also" is also the title of a novel by H.R.F. Keating. One of the book's themes might be called "the ethics of bribery".

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

The three levels of lies come to mind when I read statistics on the Colombian labour market - as an example. DANE, the National Administrative Department of Statistics, has published new figures on unemployment. Not surprisingly in times of election, the situation is improving. Unemployment is down from an average of 12% in 2009 to 11.3% in December.

I just do not believe much in this, because a quick look at the DANE releases show serious fallacies, e.g. the use of percentages of percentages make small positive changes look great (and usually these columns are green). Numerical values are sometimes hidden, so that small real changes may appear as big relative changes.

Another distortion comes with the definitions. One example: Colombian labour statistics operates with the very ambiguous category inactive. Inactive persons do not count as unemployed. Instead they are stigmatised as "those of working age who have decided not to participate in the production of goods and services" (my emphasis). This includes students, housewives, displaced persons (refugees), laid-off workers who have not registered as umemployed because it would not change anything, street vendors, and so on. About 13 million (of a total population of 45 million) are categorised as "inactive". They are not unemployed, according to DANE, as they have chosen not to participate. That way, unemployment figures can be kept at less than 12%.

It seems to be a tough job to be a director of DANE, the present director is number five in ten years, since 2000. Some of the directors have left in anger. Ernesto Rojas Morales left in 2007, fed up with the fraud, and especially when he was prevented from correcting misleading labour statistics. He was succeeded by the vice-director of the authority which had provided the manipulated figures. Also the previous director César Caballero left when late in 2004 he was told not to publish uncomfortable figures on violence in Colombia.

Caballero told quite entertaining stories about the statistical foolishness of some authorities. One example:

"According to the Ministry of Defense the number of soldiers in the FARC and ELN (guerrilla movements) has fallen considerably, from 20,600 in 2002 to about 16,000 in 2007. According to the Ministry the Armed Forces during this period captured 24,464 guerrilla members, brought down 8,799 - and a further 7,988 guerrillas deserted. Of the 20,600 guerrillas in 2002 the Armed Forces thus had immobilised 41,252." [From the discussion forum of Revista CEPA, now defunct.]

Well, what does it all matter in the context of elections? It does matter, because DANE is the source of most national statistics, used in political argument and in administrative planning. It is hot stuff! DANE is the source of population statistics and the census and thus it may become extremely important when electoral participation is low. A referendum must achieve a certain number of voters to be declared valid, a certain proportion of registered voters. If less voters show up ...

Obey the law

Occasionally I exceed speed limits, if the weather and the road permits, and I find it responsible. And of course, only if it is unlikely that the police would notice. It does not happen very often because mostly speed limits are reasonable, and also because others comply. In Sweden. So, if the limit is 30 kph past a school, I slow down. I have found it completely impossible to do likewise in Colombia.

This is because the speed limit signs (and other traffic signs) seem to be distributed arbitrarily. On a well maintained straight road in the countryside you may very well encounter sign saying 40 kph. Nobody, and certainly not uniformed military or police will obey that sign. Nor do they slow down to 30 kph when passing by the school. Not even if it were preceded by this sign, saying "Obey the signs":

It is quite frustrating, but I do adapt to local traffic culture and invent my own norms. In fact, the lack of respect of traffic laws is quite in accordance with common practice many other legal areas.

Forgive this long intro. It is just difficult to find a starting point. Here goes:

During the campaign preceding the 2006 presidential elections president Uribe was criticised for breaking the "ley de garantías" of 2005, the law that would prevent the acting president from using the president's platform for campaigning. The law also stipulates equal access to national TV channels. This was a brand new law, as a consequence of a constitutional change that made it possible for the first time to re-elect a president. Uribe's argument for neglecting the law was that it was unfeasible and that when elected he would have it changed.

There has been no change, yet. The campaign however, has started. Some of the political parties have decided on one candidate running, other parties still have not yet done so but are preparing preliminaries between their possible candidates. Thus the TV and financial restrictions for campaigning are now implemented.

The strange thing is that this does not concern president Uribe, because he has not announced his candidature. And he cannot do this formally, because the constitutional change which permitted him to be reelected in 2006, only permits this once. As a consequence Uribe can do his campaigning at full speed - prentending not to be a candidate.

Formally, Uribe cannot run for a third term. The constitution does not permit a third term. The referendum that would make possible the necessary constitutional change has not yet been accepted by the constitutional court. The constitution does not permit any change of election dates, thus the presidential election will take place on 30 May 2010. The last date for announcing presidential candidates is 12 March. The first possible date for a referendum is 13 March - if things run smoothly from now on. So, why bother?

Because in Colombia strange things might happen. In my next note I will tell a little about how strange things happened in 2006. Rule of law is not a common Colombian practice.