Hereditary corruption?

I have not previously known a society where family is so important. Of course family means a lot also in Europe, and more so in south Europe. In some countries families are also important in politics, as have been the Kennedy and Bush families in the US, the Karamanlis in Greece, Frey in Chile, Helveg in Denmark, etc. We might like them or not as politicians, but in general these are rather 'respectable' families.

In Colombia things are sometimes incredibly different, i.e. I find things difficult to understand. One thing that appears strange is that so many elected politicians, among them many members of congress, have been forced to resign. Many of them were condemned to long prison sentences for conspiracy, corruption, murder — and much more. Sentences have typically been 3 to 7 years, in one case 40 years! More than 100 governors, senators, mayors are still under investigation, and plenty of them will be condemned. Fine.

My incredulity grows when I notice that these crooks do not really disappear from politics. They do not even disappear from parliament, but are sought replaced by their sons, cousins, wives, nephews - so that family power can remain untouched both in central politics and in the local society. Some other day soon I shall write a piece on these 'family matters'. For now just a very incomplete list of candidates intending to replace their criminal relatives.

A couple of days ago I wrote about ADN, the party where the constituitive assembly included imprisoned politicians. The party had to close, but its candidates immediately found new home especially in PIN, Partido de Integración Nacional. This is not a new party (it just recently changed it's name), but established and supporting president Uribe. Main leaders are ex-senator Luis Alberto Gil (in prison) and ex-governor Hugo Aguilar (under investigacion for paramilitary collaboration).

Politicians from the traditional parties (liberals, conservatives), journalists and intellectuals sometimes mockingly characterise PIN as the "recycling" or "garbage" party. But I fear that PIN in the elections 14 March 2010 will achieve a large representation in parliament. Here are some of the suspect PIN candidates:

• Doris Vega, wife of ex-senator Luis Alberto Gil, in prison;
• Teresita García, sister of ex-senator Álvaro 'El Gordo' García, in prison; faces up to 60 years;
• Hernando de la Espriella, brother of ex-senator Miguel de la Espriella, sentenced to 3+ years for parapolitics;
• Mauricio Aguilar, son of ex-governor Hugo Aguilar (under investigation);
• Viviana Patricia Blel, niece of ex-senator Vicente Blel, condemned to 7 years in prison;
• Raúl Alberto Vives, brother of ex-representative Luis Eduardo Vives, 7 years;
• Héctor Julio Alfonso, son of mafia queen Enilce López, 'La Gata', brother of ex-mayor Jorge Luis Alfonso López;
• Jairo Hinestroza Sinisterra, cousin of ex-senator Juan Carlos Martínez, in prison for parapolitics.

Today's theme was family. Those PIN candidates who are just common, corrupt politicians are not mentioned (it is boring with long lists).

But beware, PIN is not the only party that accepts candidates with suspect relations. Take the Liberal Party, whose imprisoned ex-senator Juan Manuel López Cabrales is now advisor to his wife and candidate Arleth Casado de Lopez. So, when she is elected - he will again have a voice in the senate. We are in macholand.

In the Conservative Party likewise: ex-senator William Montes (condemned) supports his wife Martha Curi to replace him. She in turn is daughter of proven corrupt ex-mayor of Cartagena. There seems to be no end ...

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BTW: Colombia's Liberal Party is member of the Socialist International, with its nice principles and ethical charter. The party even holds a vice-presidency in the SI.

Buying and selling votes

The frontpage of today's El Universal on the web includes a poll:

"Do you know anyone who has sold his vote?"

At 9 a.m. the result is 100% yes, 0% no.
At 11 a.m. still 100% yes.
At 2 p.m. 97% yes.
And at the end of the day: 93% yes.

Admittedly this poll does not meet any scientific criteria for methodological rigour. Still, I believe that a real poll would give quite similar results.

I imagine that putting the question in Sweden would cause smiles and disbelief, "what do you mean, really?" Not so in Colombia. In fact people speak quite openly about it, and also about the current price. We can learn that one of the country's well-known crooks, Enilce "La Gata" Lopez is now offering 10-25 USD (20-50,000 pesos) for a vote on her son who wants to become senator. That is the current, flexible rate, which may of change closer to election date 14 March. At the moment you can also get paid in kind: a large bottle of rhum, clothes, phone cards.

You may ask how they control that the vote is cast, and as agreed? Well, one method is pure fear. Or "bad environment" as the parable might be, armed hitmen close to the polling stations. It is also common practice to take note of the civil register number of the seller, so that it may be checked against the list of voters. This of course requires that the crooks are represented at the voting table ...

There are many other ways to commit fraud. The government's anti-corruption office has produced a "Manual of electoral tricks" [Manual de tramparencia electoral] in an attempt to use humor in combatting fraud.

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P.S. A day later [9 February 2010] El Espectador brings a very well documented article on the same theme. The current price for a vote in Barranquilla is 40,000 pesos and an ekstra 3,000 for the bus.

More slogans!

The Alianza Democrática Nacional, ADN, is already dead. This new party was recently declared illegitimate as it was discovered that some of the founders had participated in the constituitive assembly through videolink from prison. These founding fathers and former members of Congress were serving long prison sentences for having collaborated with paramilitary groups. ADN planned to launch candidates with one merit only: they are relatives of politicians imprisoned for collaborating with paramilitaries. Thus the incredibly shameless pun: "ADN, I carry it in my blood." - ADN is Spanish for DNA.

Rafael Madrid has also a pun, trying to turn his own obesity into an argument: "Heavy reasons to work for Córdoba" - Córdoba being the department where Madrid is seeking to be elected.



Those were conscious attempts at bringing some humour into the not-so-funny campaign. Sometimes, however, the unintended becomes more entertaining:



Here the argument for voting for Musa and Tirado is that this is "Your ... best option!"

Perhaps it helps that this wall also had room for another message in the party colours: "Jesus Christ comes soon! Are you prepared for his coming?"

All these slogans have something in common, although they come from very different political groups: They communicate absolutely no political content!

Creative writing, today: CV

It happens so often and it does not cease to surprise me: Some politicians lie about academic and other qualifications. When discovered it is of course most embarrasing, and in some countries would lead to resigning from the post held. This might not be a very big thing if it is a member of a local council. But the president! Still, this is what he did, president Uribe, lying about his degrees and work at Oxford University.

I stumbled upon this when I was trying to establish the real qualifications of the (now ex-) minister of agriculture, Andrés Felipe Arias. His CV seemed quite incredible to me, with a first degree (bachelor) in 1999, next year an M.A, and in 2002 a PhD from UCLA. And also, partly during the same period, a number of job positions at Banco de la República, at UCLA, at Universidad de los Andes, at the IMF, a high administrative post in a Colombian ministry — and early 2004 appointed vice-minister of agriculture. In 2005 he was minister in charge. A town boy in five years from bachelor through PhD to minister of agriculture! Impressive, if it were true.

Perhaps it is. I have not been able to get hold of his PhD thesis, although this is usually very easy in the USA. But there exists an abstract of Arias' work, with the rather senior sounding title: "Essays in Macroeconomics and Banking Productivity."

Arias is possibly an important person as he is now presidential candidate in the preliminaries for the Conservative Party. Arias has been a kind of crown prince for Uribe, so much that he is mockingly called "Uribito". We might see more of him and his qualifications - whatever they are.

The CV lists from Uribe and Arias are not very creative though. Just a little manipulative, avoiding dates (was Arias for one week or half a year at the IMF?) and telling about visits as if they were appointments (Uribe at Oxford).

Others are more in the creative mood, like "Ray". Raymundo Méndez Bechara in full. His website presentation is more careful than Uribe's original. Bechara writes that he "studied", not that he graduated. But he too is manipulating, mentioning his sejour at the Colombian consulate in New York, "selected the best Colombian consulate abroad", "before the government of Barrack Obama" - as if Bechara had anything at all to do with Obama or the consulate's performance. Of course he had not. And no mentioning that his aunt had an influential post at the very same consulate (where other influential persons have placed their kids). It goes on and on. Bechara has also been Vice-rector of the Universidad del Sinú - but he does not mention that his mother then was rector, and owner, of this private university. On the university's page of "outstanding graduates" he has even become Dr. Raymundo Méndez Bechara.

This huge billboard by the premises of "Universidad del Sinú Elías Bechara Zainúm" might soon serve as starting point for some further observations on the importance of family ties in Colombian politics. And probably for another take on the catch phrase theme with an interpretation of "The force of a new leader"!

Slogans and catch phrases

Many of us remember catch phrases from political speeches and campaigns. Perhaps we feel something nice when seeing or hearing "Yes, we can!", Obama's campaign slogan. Admittedly, it is not very informative - but it introduces an optimistic attitude, and also the important we. To find out what we can do, it is necessary to listen or read more. Other phrases are more helpful and concrete, as "It's the economy, stupid!" used by Bill Clinton in his 1992 campaign.

Colombian politicians of course also try to invent brilliant slogans. President Uribe's favourite phrase is "Mano dura y corazón grande" [Hard hand and big heart] - often accompanied by the natural gestures, the aggressively raised fist changed into an open hand on his chest. Not a bad show. Strongman Uribe also uses "Trabajar, trabajar y trabajar" [To work, to work and to work]. Nobody doubts that he does.

One of Uribe's supporters in 2002 was former president Turbay (1916-2005, president 1978-82), who also strongly supported the reelection in 2006. He is wellknown for some interesting phrases, as "Yo no estoy a favor ni en contra, sino todo lo contrario" [I'm not in favor nor against, but quite the opposite]. Talking about corruption as I did as I did the other day, Turbay declared: "Tenemos que reducir la corrupción a sus justas proporciones" [We must reduce the corruption to its fair proportions]. I would have liked to know these, the fair proportions.

Now, let's have a look at the locals. Arleth Casado is candidate for the senate. Her slogan, she only has one, is "Siempre con todos" [Always with everyone]:

Arleth's posters, murals and banners are all over the place, in the whole region. No matter if her slogan is so impossible that I cannot understand anyone voting for her. Always with everyone! With the rich, with the poor, with the paramilitaries, with their victims! With me, with you! Always! I cannot understand it, but "everyone" belives that Arleth will be elected.

I will get back to her, when I soon will post a note on family ties and political clans.

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PS. I have noticed that Uribe sometimes uses the expression "mano firme" [firm hand], sometimes "mano duro" [hard hand]. I have not done any frequency analysis but it seems to me that with a civilian audience it is enough to be firm, while in front of soldiers Uribe tends to be hard.

Bribery, Corruption Also

This friendly handshake is how corruption may appear, both in Sweden and in Colombia. The illustration is on the cover of a most interesting official report: The structure of corruption in Sweden [in Swedish]. The report describes common "Swedish" forms of corruption. In principle they do not differ much from Colombian forms. The roles are the same - and there are at least two characters, a suborner and a corrupt person. There may be others as well: middlemen, hatchet men, and ... lawyers.

The differences are in the use of threats, extorsion or violence, the level of discretion, and the sheer size of it.

In Sweden bribery is usually quite subtile, demands are often not specified and bribes come afterwards. If discovered one can pretend it was a grateful gift, not a precondition for, e.g. a contract. It might still be against the codes, but it is difficult to prove any criminal act.

In Colombia things are otherwise. The economy of bribery is substantial. In an interview in El Tiempo (11 Jan 2010) Oscar Ortíz, the government's zar anticorrupción, estimates that bribes in 2009 amounted to 4 billion pesos, equivalent to all direct foreign investment in Colombia. This is enormous. In order to get a public contract to build a bridge, a school, maintain roads, provide school lunches or health services ... contractors have to pay an average of 12.9% in bribes.

This is the situation at all levels, when building highways in Bogotá - and when repairing the school lavatory in a remote village. And the scale of it, 12.9% of all public investments. Enough to pay for the education of 325.000 children!

However, the more widely known and perceptible corruption in Colombia is about unlawful influences, sometimes achieved through violence, harassment and threats, but very often they are part of mutual agreements, trading of favours, clientilism and nepotism. This explains why the chief paramilitary leader Salvatore Mancuso could triumphantly declare after the 2006 elections that his organisation now controlled 35% of the congress. He has proven to be right, which I shall probably want to show in future columns.

We are coming closer to today's target: strange things happened before the presidential elections in 2006. As now it was not in accordance with the constitution to reelect the president - then as now Alvaro Uribe. Attempts were made to change the rules, but failure seemed unevitable. The final battle would be in the 1st commission of the Congress, but there was a deadlock. Voting was postponed, talks went on and on - and at last the vote: surprise, surprise, in favour of allowing reelection! One of the representatives had changed her mind and was now in favour, Yidis Medina. Another was absent, Teodolindo Avendaño. This happened in 2004, and preparations for the 2006 (re-)election could continue.

Uribe was elected. His political allies were in control of the Congress. Many of these allies depended on paramilitary support for their success in the parliamentary elections.

Then, in 2008 the independent television channel Noticias Uno broadcast an interview with Yidis Medina, recorded in 2004 [watch in Youtube].

In the interview Medina tells how she traded her vote for favours, contracts, jobs to her political allies and personal friends. She had agreed to record the interview as an insurance, it would only be broadcast in case something happened to her. In 2008, 4 years later, she decided to release the interview as a revenge, as president Uribe and his collaborators had not fulfilled their promises to her. She told in considerable detail what persons had been involved, among them were various ministers including the minister of justice Sabas Pretelt, later ambassador in Italy and recently appointed director og the UN World Food Programme - as well as president Uribe himself.

Yidis Medina was of course arrested, as she had confessed. Also Avendaño and his collaborator Iván Díaz Mateus were arrested. The Supreme Court gave them prison sentences of 4, 8 and 6 years, respectively.

The president and his people denied everything. They certainly had not committed any bribery, and Uribe said about Medina that she acted as a criminal, and that "her vote helped but now she appears as a failed woman, unsatisfied because her extortion attempt did not work."

So, here we have a strange case with three corrupt members of congress condemned for receiving bribes, but noone has ever been found guilty of the bribery. And Yidis Medina's important vote was not invalidated, so the constitution still permits reelection, once. And Uribe still rules.

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PS. The headline "Bribery, Corruption Also" is also the title of a novel by H.R.F. Keating. One of the book's themes might be called "the ethics of bribery".

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

The three levels of lies come to mind when I read statistics on the Colombian labour market - as an example. DANE, the National Administrative Department of Statistics, has published new figures on unemployment. Not surprisingly in times of election, the situation is improving. Unemployment is down from an average of 12% in 2009 to 11.3% in December.

I just do not believe much in this, because a quick look at the DANE releases show serious fallacies, e.g. the use of percentages of percentages make small positive changes look great (and usually these columns are green). Numerical values are sometimes hidden, so that small real changes may appear as big relative changes.

Another distortion comes with the definitions. One example: Colombian labour statistics operates with the very ambiguous category inactive. Inactive persons do not count as unemployed. Instead they are stigmatised as "those of working age who have decided not to participate in the production of goods and services" (my emphasis). This includes students, housewives, displaced persons (refugees), laid-off workers who have not registered as umemployed because it would not change anything, street vendors, and so on. About 13 million (of a total population of 45 million) are categorised as "inactive". They are not unemployed, according to DANE, as they have chosen not to participate. That way, unemployment figures can be kept at less than 12%.

It seems to be a tough job to be a director of DANE, the present director is number five in ten years, since 2000. Some of the directors have left in anger. Ernesto Rojas Morales left in 2007, fed up with the fraud, and especially when he was prevented from correcting misleading labour statistics. He was succeeded by the vice-director of the authority which had provided the manipulated figures. Also the previous director César Caballero left when late in 2004 he was told not to publish uncomfortable figures on violence in Colombia.

Caballero told quite entertaining stories about the statistical foolishness of some authorities. One example:

"According to the Ministry of Defense the number of soldiers in the FARC and ELN (guerrilla movements) has fallen considerably, from 20,600 in 2002 to about 16,000 in 2007. According to the Ministry the Armed Forces during this period captured 24,464 guerrilla members, brought down 8,799 - and a further 7,988 guerrillas deserted. Of the 20,600 guerrillas in 2002 the Armed Forces thus had immobilised 41,252." [From the discussion forum of Revista CEPA, now defunct.]

Well, what does it all matter in the context of elections? It does matter, because DANE is the source of most national statistics, used in political argument and in administrative planning. It is hot stuff! DANE is the source of population statistics and the census and thus it may become extremely important when electoral participation is low. A referendum must achieve a certain number of voters to be declared valid, a certain proportion of registered voters. If less voters show up ...

Obey the law

Occasionally I exceed speed limits, if the weather and the road permits, and I find it responsible. And of course, only if it is unlikely that the police would notice. It does not happen very often because mostly speed limits are reasonable, and also because others comply. In Sweden. So, if the limit is 30 kph past a school, I slow down. I have found it completely impossible to do likewise in Colombia.

This is because the speed limit signs (and other traffic signs) seem to be distributed arbitrarily. On a well maintained straight road in the countryside you may very well encounter sign saying 40 kph. Nobody, and certainly not uniformed military or police will obey that sign. Nor do they slow down to 30 kph when passing by the school. Not even if it were preceded by this sign, saying "Obey the signs":

It is quite frustrating, but I do adapt to local traffic culture and invent my own norms. In fact, the lack of respect of traffic laws is quite in accordance with common practice many other legal areas.

Forgive this long intro. It is just difficult to find a starting point. Here goes:

During the campaign preceding the 2006 presidential elections president Uribe was criticised for breaking the "ley de garantías" of 2005, the law that would prevent the acting president from using the president's platform for campaigning. The law also stipulates equal access to national TV channels. This was a brand new law, as a consequence of a constitutional change that made it possible for the first time to re-elect a president. Uribe's argument for neglecting the law was that it was unfeasible and that when elected he would have it changed.

There has been no change, yet. The campaign however, has started. Some of the political parties have decided on one candidate running, other parties still have not yet done so but are preparing preliminaries between their possible candidates. Thus the TV and financial restrictions for campaigning are now implemented.

The strange thing is that this does not concern president Uribe, because he has not announced his candidature. And he cannot do this formally, because the constitutional change which permitted him to be reelected in 2006, only permits this once. As a consequence Uribe can do his campaigning at full speed - prentending not to be a candidate.

Formally, Uribe cannot run for a third term. The constitution does not permit a third term. The referendum that would make possible the necessary constitutional change has not yet been accepted by the constitutional court. The constitution does not permit any change of election dates, thus the presidential election will take place on 30 May 2010. The last date for announcing presidential candidates is 12 March. The first possible date for a referendum is 13 March - if things run smoothly from now on. So, why bother?

Because in Colombia strange things might happen. In my next note I will tell a little about how strange things happened in 2006. Rule of law is not a common Colombian practice.